Pollock Conservation Cooperative Research Center
2001 Awarded Research Projects
Pollock market data acquisition future Russian pollock supply
Gunnar Knapp
Award: $15,984
Estimated Completion: February 28, 2002
Abstract
One of the most important factors in assessing the market outlook for Alaska pollock is the supply of pollock harvested in Russian waters. Until recently Russia was the largest producer of pollock in the world. However, Russian pollock resources and harvests have declined in recent years.
This report addresses two questions, one specific and one more general:
- 1. What is the outlook for Russian pollock harvests in 2002?
- 2. How can the American pollock industry assess the outlook for future Russian pollock supply?
The analysis was based on a review of publicly available data and information, as well as interviews conducted during a visit to Vladivostok in September 2001. There are several challenges in obtaining reliable information about Russian pollock resources and harvests and how they are likely to change in the future. Published data are typically limited in coverage and out-of-date. There may be significant illegal and unreported harvests. The people who understand Russian fisheries best are in Russia. Most of the available information is in Russian--although several publications provide translations of some of this information. Given the limitations of available information, it is difficult to reach any definitive conclusions about Russian pollock harvests in 2001 or what harvests will be in 2002.
Nevertheless, it appears likely that Russian pollock quotas will be substantially reduced in 2002, perhaps from about 1678 thousand metric tons to about 930 thousand metric tons, or by about 748 thousand metric tons. Even if this quota were fully harvested which seems unlikely given recent harvest rates of about 80% of total quotas, it seems likely that Russian harvests will decline substantially in 2002, presumably by several hundred thousand tons.
It is possible, based on publicly available data, to develop a general sense of Russian pollock resource conditions and the outlook for Russian pollock harvests. However, doing this well requires significant, systematic and continuing investment in collecting and synthesizing information from a variety of different sources. There is no simple or cheap way to get reliable information about Russian pollock fisheries.
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